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Permafrost Thaw
Mercury Biogeochemistry in Thawing Permafrost Landscapes
Researcher: Kevin Ng, PhD student (2017-present)
Supervisors: Brian Branfireun (Western University) and William Quinton (Laurier)
In the Dehcho Region of the NWT, there are some lakes with consumption advisories due to mercury levels in fish. This study investigates the rate at which methylmercury is produced and broken down in areas of thawing permafrost. As climate change accelerates this thaw, changes in landscape and hydrology may favour the production of methylmercury. Samples of peat and water will be collected across multiple thawing permafrost wetlands during different seasons and years to determine the connection between the production of methylmercury and its transport to downstream areas. This work will assist in providing information to better understand and predict whether methylmercury produced in these areas may lead to increases levels found in fish in northern lakes.
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Permafrost Thaw-Induced Changes to Runoff Generation and Hydrologic Connectivity
Researcher: Ryan Connon, PhD (2013-17); research associate, hydrometeorology (2017/18)
Supervisor: William Quinton (Laurier)
Understanding the controls on subsurface water fluxes and how they may continue to change in the future is critical to predict and mitigate the impacts on infrastructure. Further south, in the zone of discontinuous permafrost, incomplete refreeze of the active layer yields a layer of unfrozen, saturated material (talik) that promotes the year-round subsurface movement of water and energy. Permafrost thaw in this discontinuous zone is widespread and of great concern to communities in the NWT’s Dehcho region. Techniques to describe current permafrost distribution, predict future distribution and mitigate potential thaw are being developed in partnership with other Laurier researchers and First Nation partners.
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- Dehcho research and projects
- Permafrost thaw induced changes to runoff generation and hydrologic connectivity in low-relief, discontinuous permafrost terrains
Changes in Plant Community Composition, Structure and Function in Response to Permafrost Thaw
Researcher: Katherine Standen, Phd candidate (2016-present)
Supervisor: Jennifer Baltzer (Laurier)
Rapid climate change in northern Canada is leading to increased air and soil temperatures, changing precipitation cycles and permafrost thaw. Thus, a changing climate may modify the quantity and quality of resources available to plants. Specifically, permafrost thaw has been shown to alter the availability of nutrients and water in the soil and thus could lead to changes in plant traits in this region. I am studying how permafrost thaw and the associated increase in nutrients are influencing plant traits in the boreal forest, especially how environmental change is altering plant traits related to carbon uptake. My focus on traits related to carbon in the boreal is critical, as the boreal forest stores approximately 1/3 of global carbon and the release of this carbon to the atmosphere could further hasten global climate change. My research will be included in models investigating current and projected changes in carbon cycling and the environment in northern Canada.
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Climate Warming Impacts on Runoff Generation Processes in an Alpine Basin, NWT
Researcher: Geoffrey Kershaw, PhD Candidate (2016–present)
Supervisor: William Quinton (Laurier)
Alpine basins are known to have greater hydrologic variability across smaller areas due to changes in soil type, ecology, microclimate, and other site-specific factors. The role of ice-rich permafrost in alpine basins can accelerate runoff during the spring melt and early summer rain events, as well as impound surface water and cause hydrological isolation as the surface soils thaw in the summer. The goal is to characterize the hydrology of distinct landscape types present in alpine valleys and describe how they affect water storage and runoff dynamics throughout the year. My research will help individuals and policy makers prepare for this changing northern landscape. This work will also assist future remote sensing and hydrology modelling projects in the North, helping us predict the future conditions of our headwater systems and support water management decision making.
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Assessing the Hydrological Variability of Thermokarst Lakes
Researcher: Evan Wilcox, PhD (2017–present)
Supervisors: Philip Marsh and Brent Wolfe (Laurier)
The thermokarst lakes between Inuvik and Tuktoyaktuk are vulnerable to changing water levels as the climate warms. I am looking at the lake and landscape properties that control changes in lake water levels to determine the relative importance of snowmelt and rainfall for recharging lakes near the Trail Valley Creek Research Station. I have collected water samples from more than 120 lakes across a 2,000 square kilometres area, which will be analyzed for multiple hydrological indicators, including snowmelt and rainfall recharge. These indicators will then be compared to multiple lake and catchment characteristics, such as the lake area-catchment area ratio, using multivariate analysis techniques to determine the influence of such landscape elements on lake water levels. From this work, the general hydrological behaviour of lakes will be able to be more easily estimated based on easily quantifiable lake and catchment characteristics. This is relevant for future industrial development in the area and for predicting future changes to lake water levels as the climate warms.
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Hydrothermal Regime of Stream Channels on Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands and Anderson Plain
Researcher: Timothy Ensom, PhD candidate (2017–present)
Supervisors: Philip Marsh (Laurier) and Steve Kokelj (NWT Geological Survey)
This research will improve understanding of temperature and flow in small stream channels in continuous permafrost on the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands and Anderson Plain, NWT, and to explore the implications of a changing climate. We hypothesize that insulation from snow cover in combination with adequate watershed storage capacity can permit flow to continue through winter in small stream channels. To test this hypothesis, we are monitoring water and ground temperature in, beneath and adjacent to streams of varying catchment size across the treeline. We are also comparing the morphology and vegetation of contributing watersheds and describing the hydrological activity, thermal conditions, and the distribution, timing and magnitude of stream icings indicative of winter water movement for streams intersected by the 130-km Inuvik to Tuktoyaktuk Highway (ITH). This research has the potential to provide new insight on winter hydrology in permafrost areas. The results are expected to inform the design, operation and mitigation of hydrological issues associated with linear infrastructure in permafrost.
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Changes in Lakes Along the Inuvik-Tuktoyaktuk Highway (1950-2011)
Researcher: Dilshan Kariyawasam, MSc (2018–present)
Supervisor: Philip Marsh (Laurier)
The ITH (Inuvik-Tuktoyaktuk Highway) traverses a region of continuous permafrost, and the number of lakes increases as you travel further north along the highway. Understanding what lakes looked like in the past and comparing it to how they currently appear can give a better understanding of the changes occurring in the area. Using ArcGIS (mapping software), it will be possible to quantify the number of lakes on the landscape, as well as how much each lake has changed over time (area and perimeter). We will share findings with the community via interactive workshops held at East 3 High School and deliver presentations at Aurora Research Institute (ARI). Collaborating with communities and exchanging our observations, we will be able to determine how lakes along the ITH are changing. This work is critical in understanding which lakes are significantly changing to provide specific areas for further work. These lakes are a source of water, cultural importance, habitat for wildlife, and play an important role in the ecosystem’s functionality.
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The Hydrological Effect of Linear Disturbances on Bogs in the NWT
Researcher: Angela Elgie, MSc (2017/18)
Supervisor: William Quinton (Laurier)
In the search for resources in the boreal region, geological survey crews create seismic lines to allow access for equipment in previously undisturbed regions to scan the ground below. Permafrost underlies these northern grounds and is being degraded faster due to these disturbances. The focus of this work is to look at the effects a 1986 seismic line disturbance has on bogs with varying hydrologic connectivity to the disturbance at Scotty Creek Research Centre, NWT. Fully connected bogs are directly in the path of the seismic lines, semi-connected bogs are connected through channels, and isolated bogs appear to be unaffected by the disturbance. After some investigation through frost probing, it seems some of the isolated bogs are forming connections to the seismic line underground. To understand more fully how the seismic line affects bogs, this study will provide a comparison of the different characteristics of each bog. The study will aid in predicting future changes to the landscape, water storage, and vegetation. The information will prove useful when trying to map out water flow paths and to see if it is possible for the land used for seismic line activity to recover.
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The Impact of a Low-Severity Burn on the Trajectory of Permafrost Thaw: Scotty Creek, NWT, Canada
Researcher: Elyse Mathieu, MSc (2015–present)
Supervisor: William Quinton (Laurier)
My research aims to improve the understanding of how a low severity-wildfire affects the thermal properties of the supra-permafrost layer in a wetland-dominated zone of thawing discontinuous permafrost that typifies much of the circumpolar subarctic. This was accomplished through a field study that monitored the impacts of a low-severity fire on key thermal and hydrometric variables over a one- to three-year period following the fire. This was the foundation for the development of a new conceptual model that represents the major thermal and hydrometric processes and feedbacks affected by or that arise from a low-severity burn, and can be used to predict changes to the permafrost environment as a result of such a burn.
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Investigating the Impacts of Microtopography and Canopy Cover on Subarctic Land Cover Changes in the Discontinuous Permafrost Zone, Scotty Creek, NWT
Researcher: Jessica Smart, MES (2018–present)
Supervisor: William Quinton (Laurier)
This research examines the relationship between organic sphagnum hummocks, black spruce and permafrost at Scotty Creek Research Station, NWT. Two primary objectives of this research include understanding seasonal development of ice bulbs as possible establishment of permafrost and determining the impact of black spruce canopy on hummock growth. By understanding the theoretical transformation and relationship between components of northern subarctic landscapes, we can offer predictions on future outcomes of these environments. This research will provide new knowledge needed to determine how northern landscapes are transitioning, which is valuable to predicting landscape trajectories. This study aims to determine whether permafrost aggregation is possible in a warming climate of the subarctic, through combining disciplines of ecology and hydrology.
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Land-Atmosphere Interactions in Thawing Boreal Forest-Wetland Landscapes of the NWT
Researcher: Manuel Helbig, PhD (2013–17)
Supervisors: Oliver Sonnentag (Université de Montréal), William Quinton (Laurier)
This study explores how thaw-induced land cover change in the Scotty Creek watershed affects greenhouse gas exchange and energy and water fluxes. Additionally, the study quantifies the climatic impacts of these changes in land-atmosphere interactions. To address these questions, multi-year observations of land-atmosphere exchanges of greenhouse gases, water and energy were analyzed. The results of this study improve our understanding of the role of thawing boreal landscapes in regional and global climate systems. This work is relevant to improve predictions of climate change and to better constrain regional water futures in the NWT. A better understanding of land-atmosphere interactions is important to inform evidence-based land management decision making and to inform policy makers about the consequences of land management practices.
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Changes in Extreme Hydroclimate Events in the Southern NWT
Researcher: Bhaleka Persaud, PhD (2013–present)
Supervisors: William Quinton (Laurier), Paul Whitfield (University of Saskatchewan)
This research focuses on analyzing extreme events using alternative datasets to understand historical changes in temperatures, precipitation and streamflow. This study will also investigate if these events are connected to large-scale climate teleconnections (e.g. Arctic oscillation) across the southern NWT. Improving our ability to understand how local climate and hydrology has changed, and how these will change in the southern NWT in the next 30-50 years, will also provide policy makers better information to improve existing adaptation and mitigation measures to combat climate change within local communities across the territory.
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Modelling the Effects of Permafrost Loss on Discharge from a Wetland-Dominated Basin in the Discontinuous Permafrost Zone
Researcher: Lindsay Stone, MSc (2015–17)
Supervisors: William Quinton (Laurier), John Pomeroy (University of Saskatchewan)
Very little is known about how water is stored and conveyed in channel fens, and as a result, it is very difficult to predict the impact of warming and permafrost thaw in vast areas of the southern NWT that contain these wetland features. I evaluated the impact of permafrost loss on discharge from Scotty Creek by modelling and incrementally changing the proportion of the landscape underlain by permafrost. This modelling exercise combined with intensive field observations demonstrated that permafrost reduction decreases the seasonal variability in flow through channel fens due to changes in the flow path routing, with amplified low-flows associated with small increases in subsurface discharge, and decreased peak discharge with large reductions in surface runoff.
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Characterizing Treed Bogs Across a Sporadic-Discontinuous Permafrost Landscape
Researcher: Brenden Disher, MSc candidate (2017–present)
Supervisor: William Quinton (Laurier)
The main objective of this work is to provide new insights regarding the future of permafrost-free landscapes in sporadic-discontinuous (10-50% ground cover underlain by permafrost) permafrost peatlands. Identifying how sporadic permafrost wetland complexes evolve under a warming climate represents an important step in better predicting changes to basin-scale hydrological and ecological regimes.
These changes can have important implications for infrastructure and local community land use in the north, and the resultant knowledge from this can be applied to science-based decision making for northern water resources.
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Hydrological Impacts of Permafrost Thaw-Induced Landscape Change
Researchers: Kristine Haynes, PhD postdoctoral researcher (2017–19) with William Quinton (Laurier)
Long-term records of water storage on permafrost plateaus, bogs and fens are examined to assess changes in water storage and flow processes across the varied environment of the discontinuous-sporadic permafrost zone in order to determine how landscape transition is affecting the hydrological mechanisms governing water storage and movement in this region. With continued landscape change as air temperatures continue to rise, it is important to understand the implications of these changes on both the availability and long-term sustainability of freshwater resources. The aim of this research is to inform water resource management policy to ensure continued availability of freshwater resources for northern communities.
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Modelling Permafrost Thaw and Groundwater Flow
Researcher: Joelle Langford, MSc (2016–18)
Supervisors: Rob Schincariol (Western University) and William Quinton (Laurier)
Permafrost covers about one quarter of the Northern Hemisphere and in many areas, it is rapidly decaying. My work aims to characterize the transitional period of permafrost decay using a three-dimensional mathematical model based on a thawing permafrost body at Scotty Creek basin in the Northwest Territories, Canada. The model simulations demonstrated the critical role that variations in land surface and permafrost table microtopography, along with talik development, play in permafrost degradation. The model simulations also allowed for the testing of remedial measures, such as mulching and borehole heat exchangers, to stabilize permafrost in high-value infrastructure environments.
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Permafrost Thaw-Induced Forest to Wetland Conversion: Potential Impacts on Basin Snowmelt Runoff
Researcher: Emily Haughton, MSc (2015–17)
Supervisor: William Quinton (Laurier)
Between 1977 and 2010, total areal snow water equivalent (SWE) decreased by 1.5 %, but the amount of SWE made available as runoff increased by 25%. Therefore, my research evaluates how permafrost thaw-induced wetland expansion at the expense of forest might affect the proportion of snowmelt that can contribute to basin runoff during the spring freshet of a 152 km2 watershed in the southern NWT. The increased proportion of the snow cover that contributes meltwater to streams may be a factor contributing to the rising steam flows observed across the study region in the mid-1990s and early 2000s, given that there has been no concomitant increase in wintertime precipitation.
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The Impacts of Climate Change on Permafrost Distribution
Researcher: Olivia Carpino, PhD (2018–present)
Supervisor: William Quinton (Laurier)
We are working to improve our understanding of permafrost distribution throughout Northwestern Canada’s discontinuous permafrost zone. Understanding of the unique conditions contributing to permafrost distribution, especially at a higher resolution than current permafrost maps, is critical for studying permafrost environments and anticipating how the land will change in the coming years and future. Identifying areas that are more prone to thaw and predicting how they will behave in the future will provide valuable insight into these transitional and dynamic northern environments. Communities, those working on the land, and industry can use this information to make decisions surrounding development and resource management.
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The Changing Influence of Permafrost on Peatlands Hydrology
Researcher: Élise Devoie, PhD candidate, (2016–present)
Supervisors: James R. Craig (University of Waterloo) and William Quinton (Laurier)
The main objective of this research is to improve our ability to explain, quantify, simulate and predict hydrologic changes due to permafrost thaw in the discontinuous permafrost peatlands environment. Identifying thaw mechanisms in permafrost environments and representing them in a hydrological model will improve our ability to understand and predict hydrological impacts of climate change in these environments. The resulting thaw model can be used by industry in the development of durable infrastructure and lay a foundation for rigorous, science-based decision making on water resource management, providing information for legislation protecting water resources in cold regions.
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Discerning Subsurface Flow-Paths and Water Storage on a Peat Plateau in the Discontinuous Permafrost Region
Researcher: Mason Dominico, MSc (2018–present)
Supervisor: William Quinton (Laurier)
The variables that control thaw of the interior plateau and its fragmentation have not previously been studied. This project aims to create an energy balance of a stable permafrost body and identify factors that govern thaw rates on the interior of a plateau. By investigating the factors that affect thaw rates on the interior of a peat plateau and creating an energy balance for a ‘stable’ plateau, a better understanding of what the future holds for these landscapes can be gained.
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Fine-Scale Geomorphological Mapping and Field Based Studies Along the Inuvik to Tuktoyaktuk Highway Corridor
Researcher: Ashley Rudy, PhD (2017–18) GWF Research Associate, Permafrost (2018-present)
Supervisor: Philip Marsh (Laurier)
I am studying the accuracy of RADARSAT-2 products using fine-scale geomorphological maps and field-based studies to explore permafrost terrain sensitivity along the Inuvik to Tuktoyaktuk Highway corridor. The work will provide new insights on the rate and nature of change, and will be valuable as a long- term monitoring tool to track surface displacement related to seasonal thaw and permafrost degradation. The resulting displacement maps will provide a tool for monitoring long-term terrain stability, evaluating infrastructure performance, and informing regional climate-change adaptation strategies. We are also combining an extensive collection of existing field data with ERT profiles of different forms and stages of permafrost degradation to examine broader landscape controls. This is a unique opportunity to provide subsurface information on the state of permafrost in this discontinuous permafrost zone providing insight into landscape controls on permafrost degradation.
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Factors Influencing Zooplankton Community Structure in Small Arctic Lakes
Researcher: Jasmina Vucic, MSc (2017–present)
Supervisor: Derek Gray (Laurier)
Climate change may alter lake water levels through changes in ice coverage, water flow, net basin water supplies, and evaporation. This research is examining how climate change impacts zooplankton communities in 56 lakes along the Dempster Highway and the Inuvik-Tuktoyaktuk Highway running from Fort McPherson to Tuktoyaktuk. This research will contribute to understanding the fundamental processes that structure zooplankton communities in Gwich’in Settlement Area (GSA) and Inuvialuit Settlement Region (ISR lakes. Furthermore, the data collected from this project will be used in an ongoing project that is assessing the impacts of climate change on important food and sport fish species in the Northwest Territories.
Factors Associated with Macroinvertebrate Communities in Canadian Arctic Lakes
Researcher: Rachel Cohen, MSc (2017–present)
Supervisor: Derek Gray (Laurier)
Freshwater lakes are experiencing changes in water levels, water temperatures and nutrient concentrations as a result of climate change. This study investigates the factors that influence macroinvertebrate community composition in 46 small to medium-sized lakes along the (Dempster and Inuvik-Tuktoyaktuk) highways that run between Fort McPherson, Inuvik, and Tuktoyaktuk. Biological (macroinvertebrates, fish), morphometric (surface area, maximum and mean depth) and water quality (turbidity, Secchi depth, pH, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, lake temperature, chlorophyll-a, nutrient and chemical concentrations) data were collected. With this data, the study will investigate which environmental variables impact macroinvertebrate communities in Gwich’in Settlement Area (GSA) and Inuvialuit Settlement Region (ISR) lakes to predict how lake ecosystems may respond to changes in climate and development in the GSA and ISR.
Impacts of Ferry Landings in the Gwich’in Settlement Area
Researcher: Matthew Teillet, MSc (2017–present)
Supervisors: Derek Gray and Alex Latta (Laurier)
Gwich’in communities have fished around the ferry landings for centuries and rely on fish for their livelihood. This study explores whether sediments from the landings are eroding downstream, which may change the shape and depth of the river, altering traditional fishing areas, and could affect fish populations. To determine the impacts of ferry landings in the Gwich’in Settlement Area on water quality and fishing opportunities, water and sediments are being sampled upstream and downstream of the ferry landings on the Peel and Mackenzie Rivers. Meetings and interviews held in each community will collect traditional knowledge about noticeable downstream impacts over the history of the ferry landings. Results will be presented in each community to collectively derive conclusions.